housing forecast

Seasonality in Real Estate: How Weather and the Time of Year Affect Housing

shannonjones Featured Articles , Real Estate Leave a Comment

Thinking of buying or selling? Pay attention to the weather and time of year first.

Understanding how weather and the time of year affect housing will help you make your best decision

clouds-37009-1Weather and the time of year have a big impact on housing activity, and in every housing market there are times of the year when fewer homes sell. For most, that time of year coincides with the winter months, and in much of the U.S., that’s the case right now.

But no matter where you live, it’s important to know how seasonality affects the housing market. So let’s look at the current housing numbers, how seasonality affects them, and what it means for you if you’re looking to buy or sell.

 With few homes available, sellers are in pole position

Last year, limited inventory dominated the headlines for the real estate industry, and that trend looks to continue this year. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), inventory dropped 12.3 percent from November to December, falling to 3.8 percent lower than December 2014. That equated to just a 3.9-month supply of homes.

Inventory in Long Beach, California is especially low. In January 2016 there was only a 1.9 month supply of homes on the market. California continues to be a hot destination for home buyers and Long Beach is no exception. Demand is high and supply is low so sellers can expect a very competitive offer on their home, as long as they have a knowledgeable realtor.

Generally speaking, a 6-month supply of homes (meaning it would take six months at the current sales pace to sell all the homes on the market) represents a balanced market, one in which there are enough homes to meet demand. For much of 2015, inventory remained well below a 6-month supply, and will likely remain so for 2016.

Why is inventory so constrained? Part of the sharp drop in December is due to the seasonal slow down in many states. Cold weather and holidays keep many buyers out of the market and many sellers waiting for demand to pick back up. Additionally, new home construction came to a standstill when the housing market crashed, so there are fewer new homes available. Existing home inventory is low as well. A combination of factors, such as locked-in low interest rates and a sense that home prices will continue to increase, are keeping current homeowners from listing their homes.

Though Californians are lucky to have year round beautiful weather, listings still tend to increase during the summer. For example, in August 2015 there were 530 active listings in Long Beach but in January 2016 there were 374.

If you’re thinking of selling, this market is very much a seller’s market. When inventory is scarce, buyers are forced to compete over the few homes for sale. Homes are selling faster, and in many markets bidding wars drive home prices up well above asking. At the very least, you’ll be in a strong negotiating position.

Economic Conditions and Home Affordability Continue to Sideline Buyers

For buyers, the market is tough, and the low number of first-time buyers illustrates just how tough it is. In a separate study conducted by NAR, first-time homebuyers in 2015 made up the lowest share of the market in nearly three decades.
abode-987096Many factors are keeping first-time home buyers sidelined. Despite a strengthening economy and job growth, wages have remained relatively stagnant. At the same time, rent prices have skyrocketed and continue to rise. Combined, these factors are preventing millennials from saving enough for a significant down payment.

However, 2016 is predicted to be a year of strong growth for housing formation. According to Urban Land Institute’s report, Emerging Trends in Real Estate, housing formations will increase dramatically. They project 3.68 million additional households will be formed over the next three years. This growth is predicted to be dominated by older Millenials, aged 25 to 34.

At the same time, home affordability continues to suffer. Home prices have risen quickly over the last three and half years, again outpacing wage and job growth. Prices are expected to rise more modestly this year, somewhere around 4 to 5 percent.

These factors combined with limited inventory are making it difficult for buyers to find the home they want at a price they can afford. However, if you’re thinking of buying, it is important to start looking sooner rather than later…

Mortgage Rates & Increasing Finance Accessibility

In February, mortgage rates remain near record lows. According to Freddie Mac’s Mortgage Survey, the average mortgage rate for a 30-yr FRM was just 3.65%. Despite tough market conditions, these rates present an excellent opportunity if you’re thinking of buying.

In a piece of good news for buyers, it should be easier to get financing in 2016. Fannie Mae’s fourth quarter 2015 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey™ shows that lenders expect to ease mortgage credit standards for GSE-eligible loans and government loans over the next three months, opening the door for more buyers to get financing.

If You’re Thinking of Buying, Act Sooner Rather Than Later

If you’re thinking of buying a home, it’s important to act sooner rather than later. As the year goes on, affordability will continue to suffer. With home prices expected to increase around 4 to 5 percent this year and mortgage rates expected to rise to around 4.5 percent, the longer you wait to buy, the less home you’ll be able to afford. Even small increases in mortgage rates and home prices can have a large impact on your future monthly mortgage payment!

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